Each time an average golfer steps up to the tee of a par 3 hole, their probability of successfully making a hole in one is 1 in 12,500 attempts. This according to a recently completed five-year study conducted by US Hole In One, a provider of hole in one contest prize insurance. The findings suggest that previously published figures wildly exaggerate the ease or difficulty of actually completing the feat. According to US Hole In One President, Greg Esterhai, “The fallacy of other studies is that they typically rely on estimated data for the actual number of holes in one made. This study avoids such conjecture by utilizing actual par 3 scoring information.”

The conclusions of the study came from analyzing instances of a hole in one occurring over the course of six million shot attempts at par 3 holes by golfers of varying ability. Additionally, the findings point to professional golfers having a sizable advantage (1 in 2,500) when it comes to making an ace. “The PGA Tour’s slogan is ‘These Guys are Good’, and they aren’t kidding,” confesses Esterhai.

In terms of more fantastical hole in one feats, US Hole In One compiled the following list of probabilities, based on their findings, for curious observers (assuming four par 3 holes in an 18-hole round):

• Average golfer making hole in one on designated hole: 1 in 12,500
• Professional golfer making hole in one on designated hole: 1 in 2,500
• Average golfer making hole in one during single round: 1 in 3,125
• Average golfer making two holes in one during single round: 1 in 26,045,834
• Average golfer making three holes in one during single round: 1 in 488 billion
• Average golfer making four holes in one during single round: 1 in 24 quadrillion
• Two golfers, same foursome, acing same hole: 1 in 26,045,834
• Three golfers, same foursome, acing same hole: 1 in 488 billion
• Golfer making holes in one on back-to-back holes: 1 in 156,250,000
• Hole in one being made during full field (144 golfers) outing: 1 in 22

“We were finding that people was grossly misestimating the probability of certain hole in one stories occurring,” notes Esterhai, “When I read a story claiming that the odds of a father and son pair both making an ace on the same hole was a trillion to one – when the actual odds are only 156 million to one – we knew this comprehensive study would be a good start to setting the record on aces straight.”